Economic trouble ahead?

Post by **__id_2615** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 8:55 am

I have been too busy to follow news very much for the last couple of years. Of course I occasionally hear snippets of news here and there from the front page of the paper, the start page in my Yahoo account, the rare times we have the tv on at home, seeing people discuss an issue on an Internet forum, overhearing people at the office talk, etc., but generally I stay tuned out. Maybe more than is good for me, but anyway that's the case.

With that backdrop, I've been vaguely aware that the economy is in trouble, but "they" have been saying things like that for several years, so it hasn't phased me. That is until I started looking into the value of my house, and based on recent sales in my neighborhood, it isn't looking too good (I was shocked to find that I might be slightly upside-down in my mortgage, even though two years ago when we refinanced, the bank's appraiser came back with a value that showed I had about $30k in equity!).

Well it all came home, however, on Sunday during Sunday School. There is a man in our church who is retired from a prominent, well-known bank, and was a regional VP for many years. Because of his background, he ends up giving talks on financial stewardship from time to time at church. Our Sunday school teacher has asked him to do such a series for our class, and he has been doing this for several weeks now. Yesterday he said some shocking things as he discussed the Bear Stearns bailout on Friday, and said that there are people talking about a possible depression! That's the first time I've heard anyone use the "D" word lately. His presentation really stressed paying down debt, and he strongly recommended against investing in the stock market at all. This guy is very conservative, and is about as far from being a sensationalist fear-monger as anyone I know. And he really knows about finance and investing due to his occupation. At the end of class, our regular teacher, who was seated in the audience remarked, half-jokingly, that his presentation ended on a gloomy note and didn't he have anything a little brighter to say? The response was "well, the snacks someone brought in for us tasted really good." That was the best he could do.

Not to panic, but, well... I'm panicking a bit. All of my retirement money is invested in the stock market (and I don't have much control over that), and my house appears to be loosing value.

Anyone else have such concerns on their mind, or have heard any other news about the economy?

Of course Googling this, you get all sorts of hits that tend to tie the doom-and-gloom to "end times prophecy" suggesting that this is somehow related to the Tribulation, etc., but my recent inclination toward Amillenialism has disabused me of this. That doesn't mean, of course that there might not be tough times ahead, but it also shouldn't be automatically assumed that this is necessarily anything that has been prophesied, either. It could be that America could be judged severely, but not that it would necessarily have anything to do with "end times."

From one web page, a pundit who it is claimed is a respectable authority (I do not have enough knowledge to verify this person's status, however) said "We are going to see economic times the likes of which no living person has seen." The web site proprietor reporting this remark says "Wait a minute. That includes people who lived through the so-called 'Great Depression.'"

Could it be that our nation is about to be judged for our wanton hedonism, unbelief, secularism, greed, self-worshiping obsession with possessions and entertainment, etc.?

I've been studying the OT prophets lately really for the first time in my life. I've been following along with Steve's Verse-by-Verse lectures and am currently in Isaiah. I've read through Jeremiah, Ezekiel, and Amos so far. The thing that strikes me is that much of it is a long, sustained complaint against both Isreal/Judah and the surrounding gentile nations for their sin and wickedness, and about the way God was planning to judge them. At the same time I think of how many people in North America, and in the westernized world in general are living their lives (including those of "Christian"--even evangelicals and fundamentalists), and have wondered while reading the prophets, why it is that we aren't judged similarly. Well, maybe we will be....

Any thoughts?

Post by **_Suzana** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 3:45 pm

Some of my thoughts as I was reading this:

This is a great opportunity to take spiritual stock. If you are a bit panicky, (or anyone, not just you; I would also be judging this in myself in similar circumstances if necessary), it’s a good time to re-consider Jesus’ words:

Mat 6:25 Therefore I say to you, Do not be anxious for your life, what you shall eat, or what you shall drink; nor for your body, what you shall put on. Is not life more than food, and the body more than clothing?
Mat 6:32 For the nations seek after all these things. For your heavenly Father knows that you have need of all these things.
Mat 6:33 But seek first the kingdom of God and His righteousness; and all these things shall be added to you.

Whether we are living in end times or not, God’s desire is for the bride to make herself ready; as God desires a pure bride, not given to idolatry – this would include not bowing down before the gods of gold & silver.

1Ti 6:8 But having food and clothing, we will be content.

I don’t mean to sound glib; our priorities, and our attitude towards possessions is one of the areas that God has been targeting in our church group; the knowledge that everything we have actually belongs to God needs to be more than a nebulous doctrinal ideal, it needs to be real and lived out practically.

These are just some quick thoughts, I'm looking forward to others'.

Post by **_livingink** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 7:07 pm

Christians in Sudan may wonder how economic times could get worse. Ask yourself some questions: Do you need to sell your house or can you live there in that neighborhood being a neighbor to the guy across your back fence for the next 20 years? Do you have enough cash saved to pay off that mortgage? Does your retirement plan allow you to exchange between funds such as stock, bond or money market--if not, why are you letting someone else manage the money God has entrusted to you? (Below the belt with that one, sorry) When the rich man entrusted his servant with 5 talents, went away and returned a few years later to find that the servant had doubled it to 10, do you suppose he asked how many times his servant invested poorly and lost money or was he just happy that the guy made 5 more talents in the long run? As I remember, the guy got a reward.

Bear Stearns a bad investment? JPMorgan Chase didn't think so once the price was right. In the next couple years they'll wind up with egg on their face or they will have made a great investment. Roughly 20 years ago the stock market lost 500 points in a day when 500 points meant something. The sun became dark, the moon didn't give its light, the stars fell from the night sky, and the pundits sat in Wall Street in ashes and sackcloth. Those who sold lost money. Those who had borrowed money to invest lost money. Those who turned the tv off for a couple years and stayed in the market were generally into positive ground at the end of that period. Maybe a little hyperbole there.

What is God telling you to do with the money he entrusts you with? Where is your treasure? If God tells you to sell your house, stock, car, golf clubs,--would you do it? Since eternity is a long period, learn to think that way. If you lose everything and die tomorrow, would you count that as gain? Paul did. Not bad company to be in.

I was where you are 20 years ago. Keep listening to Steve's recordings and studying the prophets. You'll find it a lot more fulfilling than the latest doom and gloom report.

livingink

Post by **_Allyn** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 9:21 pm

Suzana wrote:Some of my thoughts as I was reading this:

This is a great opportunity to take spiritual stock. If you are a bit panicky, (or anyone, not just you; I would also be judging this in myself in similar circumstances if necessary), it’s a good time to re-consider Jesus’ words:

Mat 6:25 Therefore I say to you, Do not be anxious for your life, what you shall eat, or what you shall drink; nor for your body, what you shall put on. Is not life more than food, and the body more than clothing?
Mat 6:32 For the nations seek after all these things. For your heavenly Father knows that you have need of all these things.
Mat 6:33 But seek first the kingdom of God and His righteousness; and all these things shall be added to you.

Whether we are living in end times or not, God’s desire is for the bride to make herself ready; as God desires a pure bride, not given to idolatry – this would include not bowing down before the gods of gold & silver.

1Ti 6:8 But having food and clothing, we will be content.

I don’t mean to sound glib; our priorities, and our attitude towards possessions is one of the areas that God has been targeting in our church group; the knowledge that everything we have actually belongs to God needs to be more than a nebulous doctrinal ideal, it needs to be real and lived out practically.

These are just some quick thoughts, I'm looking forward to others'.

My feelings exactly. Now watch me go screaming through the streets if this gets worse

Post by **_Homer** » Mon Mar 17, 2008 11:23 pm

Jared,

My thoughts are similar to livingink's. I do not know how old you are but if you are relatively young I certainly would not sell stocks now - that's a guaranteed way to lose money. People who invest based on feelings generally lose big-time. Right now gold is over $1000 an ounce. People see this and think they ought to buy some. The time to buy it was some time ago when it was cheaper. The average person buys when it is too late. Investing small amounts on a regular basis averages out the cost. You are unlikely to ever time your investment when the cost is lowest.

I would, however, if you can, make a plan to diversify your retirement funds as appropriate for your age.

Post by **_featheredprop** » Sat Mar 22, 2008 7:59 am

Suzana wrote:Some of my thoughts as I was reading this:

This is a great opportunity to take spiritual stock...

.. very well said, Suzana ... very well indeed.

peace,

dane

Post by **_Allyn** » Sat Mar 22, 2008 9:47 am

Just some thoughts:

Should Christians participate in the stock market? In reality it is not a victimless venture. Someone gets the short end of the stick. Lets say I owned shares in Bears and sold them the day before at 20 dollars and escaped the loss I would have taken the next day at 2 dollars. I would have come out cool but the victim would be those who bought my shares when the price was high. How is this justifiable?

Post by **_Homer** » Sun Mar 23, 2008 8:23 pm

Allyn,

If those selling had "inside information" regarding what was going to happen it is immoral, and I believe, also a crime. If they did it innocently they are blameless.

As long as things are done honestly, investing in the stock market is no different than investing in any business, large or small. Are Christians only allowed to be laborers?

I think the principle expressed in James provides the answer:

James 4:13-17 (New King James Version)

13. Come now, you who say, “Today or tomorrow we will go to such and such a city, spend a year there, buy and sell, and make a profit”; 14. whereas you do not know what will happen tomorrow. For what is your life? It is even a vapor that appears for a little time and then vanishes away. 15. Instead you ought to say, “If the Lord wills, we shall live and do this or that.”

James did not indicate buying and selling (a form of speculative business) was wrong, but our attitude about it certainly can be.

Post by **_livingink** » Tue Mar 25, 2008 7:48 pm

I would agree with Homer. The stock market simply allows two or more parties to exchange ownership in a company at a price on which they both agree. There is no forced sale or purchase. Each party is required to count the potential profit or loss and then to make or not make a transaction. This requires good investing stewardship since both parties must make use of available information before making the decision to transact and thus commit the funds which God has entrusted to them. And, remember Homer's point from before--the man who purchased at $20 only to have the market fall to $2 the next day only has a paper loss. He hasn't lost the stock and he will only have an $18 loss if he chooses to sell at $2. If he has the stomach for it, he can ride the market out hoping that the market will rise and he will recoup the loss. That may happen but it may take quite some time. Some would argue that he should sell, taking the $2 and using the experience he now has to make a much better investment, based on his research, to attempt to increase the $2 to $40 thus doubling his original sum and possibly receiving the same reward as the 5 talent servant I previously spoke about.

I didn't think to mention this before but Jared may also want to educate himself regarding the markets by reading some type of financial newspaper or magazine to get the basics and then to learn what he surmises the markets will do. He then makes an educated decision based on facts. If he studies the prophets, he can make an educated decision on whether the dispensationalist or the preterist is correct, for example. Gordon Fee teaches that a Bible student must read and decide what the book says to you. Same with financial information.

livingink

Post by **__id_2615** » Thu Mar 27, 2008 8:55 pm

Well, I've calmed down a bit from the initial "chicken little" mood I was in when I made the OP. My interest was twofold: 1) concern over my personal affairs, but more significantly: 2) could America (or the whole western world) be judged for our hedonism by going through another time like the 1930's or worse?

The concern I had over my personal situation is taken care of for the moment. Part of it was resolved by getting a little more conservative in the investments (moved some things over into a bond fund), and part of it was from taking heed of some things said in this thread including the admonition to "not be anxious for your life, what you shall eat, or what you shall drink; nor for your body, what you shall put on." (Thank you Suzana for reminding me of that). Although I'm still "young" in terms of retirement planning (39), I have some plans that might involve accessing some of that money soon and I was worried that it would disappear before I got a chance to execute the plans. But I have to remember that such things are in God's hands. Of course we have a responsibility to be wise with our resources, but we shouldn't worry about things as if God isn't in control.

However, I've said too much already, and it probably wasn't prudent for me to go into so much detail about my personal monetary affairs. I did so as a lead-in to the more generic question about the nation's economic outlook as a whole.

Allyn started off on an interesting direction with a question worthy of discussion:

Should Christians participate in the stock market?

Well, in my case, I had no choice in the matter. My employer has set up this retirement plan which I had no direct control over (at least as far as whether or not I would participate), and it is invested partially in stocks (mutual funds). The only control I have is to move things from one of of about a dozen or so mutual funds to another; some are more heavy in stocks, others more heavy in bonds. In fact, I don't even have a choice as to whether or not I participate in it. They make contributions into it on my behalf and that's just the way it is. The only way I can withdraw is to quit my job (which I might do soon) and go work somewhere else.

I'm with Homer and livingink on this. Investing in stocks as a long-term investment is just prudent money handling. However, if the question had been "Should Christians play the stock market?" then my answer would have been "No." Playing the stock market is a form of gambling. If you are getting involved with the intention of making a quick buck by frequent buying and selling, then it is problematic and brings up the points you mentioned (including the problem of taking advantage of the poor slob from whom you bought low-priced shares). But if you do some homework and decide what investments are generally prudent and stick with them for the long haul, I don't see the problem.

BTW, I think its high time I made an introduction. I will start another thread to do so. I've been shooting out these posts here and there like a voice out of the blue without so much as a "How do you do, my name is ___ and I'm from___, etc."